Gro Yield Model Forum
Welcome to Gro’s Yield Model Forum! Please feel free to post any comments, feedback, or questions here. Note that you can opt to receive email notifications to stay updated on the threads you comment by going into your user settings.
Check out our yield model page to learn more about the model and download our paper: https://gro-intelligence.com/yield-model
54 results found
-
4 votes
We don’t at the moment. The model is modeled at the county level so we do plan to make county level forecasts available to the public in the near future.
-
Is there a way to go back and see the output from previous years on specific dates during that year?
For example if I wanted to see what Gro was forecasting as the yield on July 10, 2016 or August 1 2015 etc.?
3 votesYou can see the output from previous years in the paper (i.e. figure 4, figure 7, figure 9, etc.). You can download the paper here: https://gro-intelligence.com/yield-model
-
3 votes
-
Historical data
Do you have historical yield prediction data ranging back so far that there are enough data points to include in another machine learning model?
2 votes -
2 votes
Hi Eric, thanks for your question!
April is already close to harvest, so crops are either mature or at the end of grain-filling. The water demand of crops should be low if not zero, but too much rain may hurt or delay harvesting.
Additionally, no weather variables post-March showed up as significant variables to yield in the Gro Argentine soy model. -
Do you have any data about GMO corn vs. Non-GMO corn?
Can you separate corn yields by GMO and Non-GMO corn?
2 votes -
progressive yield limits
Over the past few weeks your estimate has risen from 156 to 162, then back to 159 & up to 160. Granted that growing conditions can improve and lead to a better yield but corn is determinate type crop. To a considerable extent conditions at a certain stage determine the maximum potential going forward. Ear length & kernel row number is determined in the final vegetative stages, pollination success determines the number of kernels. And while it is true that good weather during kernel fill can compensate for fewer kernels with heavier kernels there is a limit.
Does your model…2 votes -
true yld?
On your home page you show your July & August predictions against "true yield". Is the "true yield" you refer to the USDA's final yield? Or do you have some other number?
2 votesTrue yield refer to USDA final reported yield published the following year.
-
2 votes
We believe that our trend model accounts for a tendency for earlier planting, as well as other multiyear trends that are already in progress. The trend model runs at the beginning of each growing season.
-
2 votes
The current yield model is for the US – it was modeled at the county level and extrapolated to the national level with 15 years of backtested data. However, we are planning to calculate yield projections for a wider variety of crops and regions. In the meantime, you can access the data used in the model at a global scale in Gro, our global agricultural data platform.
-
Weather Forecasts?
Does your model use forward-looking weather forecast data, or only observed/actual values?
2 votesOur model currently only uses remotely sensed weather data, specifically LST. We are also testing other weather data now. Let us know if you have any feedback or suggestions!
-
Ibiza Airport Transfers & Airport Taxi | AtoB Taxi Transfers
Ibiza Airport transfers & taxi from Ibiza airport to San Antonio. AtoB Airport Taxi will pick you up at Ibiza Airport and transfer comfortably anywhere in Ibiza
https://atobtransfer.com/spain/taxi-transfers-alicante-airport-to-benidorm/
https://www.facebook.com/transferservicebrussels/
https://twitter.com/AtoB_transfer_1 vote -
Historical Yield data
How is historical yield data incorporated into the forecasting model?
1 vote -
1 vote
Daily updates to our yield model forecasts can be accessed by paying users through our software product, Gro. We however routinely update delayed values on our website here: https://gro-intelligence.com/products/gro-forecasts
-
US Yield Model - late season changes
I just listened to the webinar from yesterday, and have a question on the US corn yield model. You mentioned that the last change was in late December, but by that time the crop was already harvested. What changed at that point in the season that caused for a change to your yield estimates?
1 voteHi Mike, thanks for your question.
The major reasons for yield forecasting changes post-season:
1. Our US corn yield forecast is aggregated up from sub-national level forecasts. Yields from US corn belt counties are from the Gro yield model, yields from US non corn belt states are from USDA NASS. Last year our corn belt yield forecasts changed slightly after October. The major changes came from USDA’s forecasts out of corn belt states, although weighted only less than 20% of the national yield aggregation.
2. Usually after the growing season, our county level yield forecasts do not change, unless we added/backfilled new features that were fully tested for increasing our model’s performance, which was the case of precipitation from TRMM last year for US corn model. -
Argentine Soy model
Hi, looking forward to seeing your Argentine soy yield model forecasts. Do you have any data on its historical track record?
Thanks!1 vote -
Today's yield update
Hi, I see you updated your US yield today in light of USDA's huge number, but you have the date as "7 November (latest)". Shouldn't this be 9 November? You were showing 172.6 earlier today.
1 voteHi Josh,
Thank you for your comment. Our US corn yield is updated daily on our platform. The website is reflecting our November 7th number with a slight delay. You’ll be able to access our November 9th yield forecast on our data platform, Gro.
-
Historical Track Record vs USDA
Do you have available somewhere or could you share a table of your model forecasts around the time of historical USDA forecasts? It would be helpful to see that.
1 voteWe have charts in our yield model paper (which you can download here in the left hand column: https://gro-intelligence.com/us-corn-yield) that show the historical USDA forecasts compared to our model’s 2016 forecasts. For 2017, you can find the charts in our weekly commentaries, also available here: https://gro-intelligence.com/us-corn-yield
-
Weekly Commentary - October 13, 2017
The Gro Intelligence US corn yield model estimate has dropped slightly again from 172.7 bu/ac (or 10.84 t/ha) to 172.6 bu/ac (or 10.83 t/ha). USDA validated the model’s bearish tendency in yesterday’s WASDE. Knowing our model as we do, we don’t expect any further significant changes in our estimate. Therefore, we will end this series of comments for 2017, barring an unexpectedly large change in the model estimate or some other notable event.
Thank you for your interest in Gro’s US corn yield model. The estimate will continue to update daily on our data platform. Subscribers currently have access to…
1 vote -
Weekly Commentary - October 4, 2017
The Gro Intelligence US corn yield model estimate has fallen slightly for the second week in a row, from 172.9 bu/ac (or 10.85 t/ha) to 172.7 bu/ac (or 10.84 t/ha). The model is likely to be stabilizing near its final value for the year, since satellite greenness indicators have peaked and harvest is well under way. Our estimate remains significantly higher than USDA’s and the general trade consensus. The model is therefore bearish on prices, expecting another increase in USDA’s yield at the 12 October World Agricultural Supply/Demand Report (WASDE). While our model will continue to update on our subscription-based…
1 vote
- Don't see your idea?