Weekly Commentary - August 25, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield model jumped significantly higher over the past week, rising from 167.5 bushels/acre (or 10.51 tonnes/hectare) to 169.9 (or 10.66). For the first time this season, Gro’s forecast is bigger than USDA’s and near the trend. Most of the credit for the improvement goes to satellite data showing rapid greening of the South Dakota crop, which previously had provoked concern due to its poor condition.
This development coincides with Gro’s yield modeler’s participation in the 2017 Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour. The Tour samples crops between Ohio and Minnesota on the eastern leg and between South Dakota and Minnesota by way of Nebraska on the western leg. Most crop scouts expressed surprise at the high yields they saw. Using the Tour results as input, Pro Farmer issued a national yield forecast of 167.1 bushels/acre. Formerly bullish scouts saw the number as bearish relative to their expectations even though it came in well below USDA.