Weekly Commentary - October 4, 2017
The Gro Intelligence US corn yield model estimate has fallen slightly for the second week in a row, from 172.9 bu/ac (or 10.85 t/ha) to 172.7 bu/ac (or 10.84 t/ha). The model is likely to be stabilizing near its final value for the year, since satellite greenness indicators have peaked and harvest is well under way. Our estimate remains significantly higher than USDA’s and the general trade consensus. The model is therefore bearish on prices, expecting another increase in USDA’s yield at the 12 October World Agricultural Supply/Demand Report (WASDE). While our model will continue to update on our subscription-based software (Gro), barring an event of interest, we will issue the next and last model value writeup for 2017 after the October report.