US Yield Model - late season changes
I just listened to the webinar from yesterday, and have a question on the US corn yield model. You mentioned that the last change was in late December, but by that time the crop was already harvested. What changed at that point in the season that caused for a change to your yield estimates?
Hi Mike, thanks for your question.
The major reasons for yield forecasting changes post-season:
1. Our US corn yield forecast is aggregated up from sub-national level forecasts. Yields from US corn belt counties are from the Gro yield model, yields from US non corn belt states are from USDA NASS. Last year our corn belt yield forecasts changed slightly after October. The major changes came from USDA’s forecasts out of corn belt states, although weighted only less than 20% of the national yield aggregation.
2. Usually after the growing season, our county level yield forecasts do not change, unless we added/backfilled new features that were fully tested for increasing our model’s performance, which was the case of precipitation from TRMM last year for US corn model.
The focus for our US corn yield model will remain on the core US corn belt states for now. Instead, we'll be working on our US soy yield model.
Makes sense on both - thank you for the quick reply. Is there any thought to adding more states next year to the model, or will the focus remain on the core US corn belt states?