Gro Yield Model Forum
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21 results found
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Weekly Commentary - October 13, 2017
The Gro Intelligence US corn yield model estimate has dropped slightly again from 172.7 bu/ac (or 10.84 t/ha) to 172.6 bu/ac (or 10.83 t/ha). USDA validated the model’s bearish tendency in yesterday’s WASDE. Knowing our model as we do, we don’t expect any further significant changes in our estimate. Therefore, we will end this series of comments for 2017, barring an unexpectedly large change in the model estimate or some other notable event.
Thank you for your interest in Gro’s US corn yield model. The estimate will continue to update daily on our data platform. Subscribers currently have access to…
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Weekly Commentary - October 4, 2017
The Gro Intelligence US corn yield model estimate has fallen slightly for the second week in a row, from 172.9 bu/ac (or 10.85 t/ha) to 172.7 bu/ac (or 10.84 t/ha). The model is likely to be stabilizing near its final value for the year, since satellite greenness indicators have peaked and harvest is well under way. Our estimate remains significantly higher than USDA’s and the general trade consensus. The model is therefore bearish on prices, expecting another increase in USDA’s yield at the 12 October World Agricultural Supply/Demand Report (WASDE). While our model will continue to update on our subscription-based…
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Weekly Commentary - September 25, 2017
For the first time in nine weeks, the Gro US corn yield model’s estimated value has fallen slightly, from 173.0 bu/ac (or 10.86 tonnes/hectare) to 172.9 bu/ac (or 10.85). The change occurred due to similarly small changes in satellite greenness indications. This is effectively an unchanged result. Accordingly, our view remains bearish on corn prices, calling for a yield higher than either the USDA, the general trade consensus, or the long term trend.
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Weekly Commentary - September 20, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield model has risen yet again, for the eighth consecutive week, to 173.0 bushels/acre (or 10.86 tonnes/hectare) from 172.0 (or 10.80). The main drivers again are satellite greenness indicators and crop condition scores. Other states are making up for increasing dryness in Iowa, as shown in the map of evapotranspiration (below). Somewhat uncomfortably, Gro has become an outlier on the bearish side at this point. It should be acknowledged, however, that our non-consensus bearish view before the September WASDE was correct.
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Weekly Commentary - September 12, 2017
The USDA has come out with its September WASDE report, and it has raised its US corn yield estimate from 169.5 bushels/acre to 169.9. This flew in the face of an average trade expectation of 168.2, but moved USDA closer to Gro’s 172 bushels/acre. Traders who acted on the Gro model’s bearish estimate before the report are enjoying favorable price action today.
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Weekly Commentary - September 9, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield model moved higher for the seventh consecutive time over the past week, moving from 170.6 bushels/acre (or 10.71 tonnes/hectare) to 172.0 (or 10.80). Gro’s forecast is solidly bigger than USDA’s and above consensus trend yield. Satellite greenness indicators have passed their seasonal peaks in most of the Corn Belt. As a result, crop condition scores have become more important factors in the model. Increases in good-to-excellent ratings in Iowa and Illinois outweighed deterioration elsewhere. Gro’s model remains on the price-bearish side of the market going into tomorrow’s USDA Supply/Demand report.
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Weekly Commentary - August 18, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield model continues to edge higher as the price of corn moves lower. Our latest estimate has come in at 167.5 bushels/acre (or 10.51 tonnes/hectare), up from the 166.8 (or 10.47) issued prior to the USDA’s WASDE report, which was at 169.5 (or 10.64). Improving satellite vegetation greenness images (NDVI) and improving crop condition scores have driven our estimate’s consecutive increases.
Gro’s chief yield modeler will be working as a crop scout for the Farm Journal Eastern Midwest Crop Tour next week. For updates from the fields, please post questions related to the Tour here in the…
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Weekly Commentary - September 1, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield model jumped significantly higher over the past week, rising from 169.9 bushels/acre (or 10.66 tonnes/hectare) to 170.6 (or 10.71). Now Gro’s forecast is solidly bigger than USDA’s and above consensus trend yield. The price-bearishness of the model has again been driven by satellite data showing greening in the Corn Belt. Unlike last week, which featured improvement in areas which had performed poorly so far, these were scattered around the Corn Belt.
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Weekly Commentary - August 25, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield model jumped significantly higher over the past week, rising from 167.5 bushels/acre (or 10.51 tonnes/hectare) to 169.9 (or 10.66). For the first time this season, Gro’s forecast is bigger than USDA’s and near the trend. Most of the credit for the improvement goes to satellite data showing rapid greening of the South Dakota crop, which previously had provoked concern due to its poor condition.
This development coincides with Gro’s yield modeler’s participation in the 2017 Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour. The Tour samples crops between Ohio and Minnesota on the eastern leg and between South Dakota…
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Weekly Commentary - August 11, 2017
Yesterday, the USDA released its August estimate for US corn yield at 169.5 bushels/acre, down 1.2 bushels/acre from the earlier estimate of 170.7. With market expectations near 166, and Gro’s model at 166.8, this number was indisputably bearish. Corn futures prices reacted by dropping 4% in short order. From this new lower price level, Gro’s model remains bullish, currently calling for a further 2.7 bushels/acre decline before harvest.
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Weekly Commentary - August 9, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield forecast stands at 166.80 bushels/acre (or 10.47 tonnes/hectare), up from 164.33 (or 10.31) last week and just in time for the important August 10th USDA report tomorrow. The increase in our forecast was mainly driven by signals indicating stronger crop health across the US Corn Belt.
Our model’s increase flies in the face of declining condition averages, and probably means that our yield estimate is now higher than trade opinion for the first time this year. We believe that the majority of corn market participants use a simple linear method for estimating yield using the percent…
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Weekly Commentary - July 31, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield model estimate has broken dramatically higher in a price-bearish fashion from 160.92 bushels/acre (or 10.10 tonnes/hectare) to 164.33 (or 10.31), mainly driven by much stronger satellite-based vegetation health numbers (NDVI). Gro’s yield estimate is now close to the average trade estimate, but both are still well below the USDA’s number and trend yield. This fact can be construed as bullish for prices, but has been true for the whole season to date. This positive 3.4 bushel/acre shift in one week is bearish at the margin by any standard.
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Weekly Commentary - July 23, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield model estimate has risen to 160.92 bushels/acre (or 10.10 tonnes/hectare) from 159.99 (or 10.04). Since the last reading, satellite-based vegetation health numbers (NDVI) have improved along with land surface temperatures. Despite this increase, the Gro estimate is bullishly well below both the average trade estimate and trend yield.
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Weekly Commentary - July 17, 2017
Breaking a four-week trend, Gro’s US corn yield model estimate has fallen from 162.42 bushels/acre (or 10.19 tonnes/hectare) to 159.99 (or 10.04). We have begun to release yield estimates on a daily basis as new data comes in. Since changes will be much more incremental as a result, we will only provide commentary when events justify it.
Both subpar satellite-based vegetation health numbers (NDVI) and declining condition ratings have combined to reduce our estimate this week, which is clearly still below the industry’s collective opinion and trend yield. If we end up with only 159.99 bushels/acre in US corn this…
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Weekly Commentary - July 7, 2017
For the fourth week in a row, Gro’s corn yield model estimate has risen, from 160.47 bushels/acre (or 10.07 tonnes/hectare) to 162.42 (or 10.19), another almost-2-bushel/acre rise. The primary drivers of the rise appear to have been increased crop health detected from satellite based vegetation signals and simultaneously rising USDA crop condition scores. The model is still below USDA and trade estimates and therefore can still be seen as bullish for corn prices.
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Weekly Commentary - June 29, 2017
Gro’s US corn yield estimate has risen again, from 157.51 bushels/acre (or 9.89 tonnes/hectare) to 160.47 (or 10.07), a significant increase of almost 3 bushels/acre. Geospatially-derived NDVI data has driven the change, coupled with improving condition ratings. We’re concerned about unusually high proportions of “very poor”- and “poor”-rated fields in Indiana and the Dakotas, but so far they have not outweighed the better rated crops elsewhere.
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Weekly Commentary - June 22, 2017
Once again, Gro’s US corn yield estimate has risen, from 156.74 bushels/acre (or 9.84 tonnes/hectare) to 157.51 (or 9.89). Better crop conditions in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana drove the change in the number, but we’re also starting to see significant effects from NDVI as the crop matures. Despite the increases of the past two weeks, at 157.51, our model result still comes in well below market yield expectations and therefore would contribute to a forecast for higher corn prices.
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Weekly Commentary - June 13, 2017
We’re a little relieved to see the model yield rising from 154.79 bushels/acre (or 9.72 tonnes/hectare) to a still-alarming 156.74 (or 9.84), an increase of almost 2 bushels/acre. Of course, this is still well below trend and consensus forecast yields, and if realized would be hugely bullish for corn. The late-May increase in land surface temperatures explains most of the move in the model, which occurred despite percent good-to-excellent deteriorating by 1 point in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Since we also see in that report that 95 percent of the US corn crop has emerged from the soil, we expect…
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Weekly Commentary - June 5, 2017
Our model value has crashed to 154.79 bushels/acre (or 9.72 tonnes/hectare) from 162.57 bushels/acre (or 10.20 tonnes/hectare). There are two big factors at work here: the lower-than expected corn crop conditions estimate in USDA's Crop Progress reports so far and colder than normal temperatures in late May causing a big drop in forecast Indiana/Eastern Corn Belt yields.
As data has accumulated, our confidence in a lower-than-expected yield has grown. Corn plants are emerging in the Midwest and satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) information will soon begin to influence the model and increase its accuracy. At this early date, we…
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Weekly Commentary - May 28, 2017
This week, we see another wild swing in the yield model, clearly caused by an extreme change in average temperatures across the US Midwest. The value has fallen from 168.60 bushels/acre (or 10.59 tonnes/hectare) to 162.57 bushels/acre (or 10.20 tonnes/hectare), which is only slightly above the alarming initial value in early May. It’s important to remember that early in the season, the model has less data and therefore can fluctuate dramatically with changing conditions. But with recorded temperatures this far below average across a wide geographic area, the US corn crop needs seasonal warming to occur soon to reach its…
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