AdminGro Intelligence Support
(Software Engineer, Gro Intelligence)
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An error occurred while saving the comment Thank you for your question. We have daily in-season forecast yield for US corn from the 2016 season onward, Argentine soybeans from the 2017 season onward, and US soybeans from 2018 onward.
Our model is trained on the yield data and other variables from 2000 onward, but we do have the actual annual yield data of various sources per crop country dating back as far as the early 20th century. -
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Hi Mike, thanks for your question.
The major reasons for yield forecasting changes post-season:
1. Our US corn yield forecast is aggregated up from sub-national level forecasts. Yields from US corn belt counties are from the Gro yield model, yields from US non corn belt states are from USDA NASS. Last year our corn belt yield forecasts changed slightly after October. The major changes came from USDA’s forecasts out of corn belt states, although weighted only less than 20% of the national yield aggregation.
2. Usually after the growing season, our county level yield forecasts do not change, unless we added/backfilled new features that were fully tested for increasing our model’s performance, which was the case of precipitation from TRMM last year for US corn model.An error occurred while saving the comment Hi Mike,
The focus for our US corn yield model will remain on the core US corn belt states for now. Instead, we'll be working on our US soy yield model.
Thanks!
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Hi Josh,
Thank you for your comment. Our US corn yield is updated daily on our platform. The website is reflecting our November 7th number with a slight delay. You’ll be able to access our November 9th yield forecast on our data platform, Gro.
An error occurred while saving the comment Hi Josh,
Our priority is to provide subscribers to our data platform with accurate and timely updates to our yield forecasts, which they have been able to access daily. You are also welcome to download our yield model paper from our website (https://gro-intelligence.com/us-corn-yield) to verify the results of the model yourself.
An error occurred while saving the comment Hi Josh,
We've just posted a chart of our weekly progress since our October 13 forecast. Our subscribers have been able to see our model update daily and continue to rise from the high-at-the-time 172.6 forecast on October 13 to its current value. The increase appeared in late October. You can view the progress here: https://gro-intelligence.com/us-corn-yield
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An error occurred while saving the comment @Daltair Santos - You are absolutely welcome to use our model for Brazil. Let us know if we can help!
An error occurred while saving the comment Our yield model does not differentiate between GMO and non-GMO corn. However, Gro, our software platform, has specific data on GMO and non-GMO corn.
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An error occurred while saving the comment Carlson, thanks for the comment and feedback!
Llion, we'd love to meet. We'll send you an email to coordinate.
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We believe that our trend model accounts for a tendency for earlier planting, as well as other multiyear trends that are already in progress. The trend model runs at the beginning of each growing season.
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True yield refer to USDA final reported yield published the following year.
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AdminGro Intelligence Support (Software Engineer, Gro Intelligence) supported this idea ·
Thank you for your question. Historical yield data are used to calibrate the model. The direction and size of the effect of each factor is determined by comparing the historical yields to the amount of rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration, location, and other factors. These effects are then used to create the forecast.
The yield data was collected from USDA NASS, from 1500 major corn-producing counties between 2001 and 2016.